Previous security arrangement failures heavily influence current discussions about peace frameworks. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum promised Ukrainian security in exchange for nuclear weapons surrender, commitments Russia violated when invading.
This historical precedent creates skepticism about security guarantees not backed by concrete enforcement mechanisms. Ukrainian officials argue that paper promises proved worthless when Russia chose to ignore them in 2014 and 2022.
The Budapest Memorandum experience shapes Ukrainian insistence on robust security arrangements. Zelenskyy and his advisers demand guarantees with teeth rather than merely diplomatic assurances that could be disregarded.
European leaders acknowledge these historical lessons when designing potential security frameworks. They recognize that effective arrangements must include mechanisms ensuring compliance rather than relying solely on good faith.
The challenge involves creating security guarantees that Russia will respect without mechanisms so robust that Moscow refuses to accept any settlement including them. This tension between effectiveness and acceptability complicates efforts to design workable arrangements.