Last June, the world watched as Israel and the US launched a 12-day war against Iran’s nuclear sites. While that conflict ended in a ceasefire, it left Iran’s military and air defenses “reeling.” Now, the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln marks the beginning of what many fear is a sequel designed to finish the job. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that will not target centrifuges, but the individuals who order the killings of protesters.
The shift from nuclear to political targets is a major escalation in Washington’s strategy. Inflation at 60% and the plummeting rial have already “shattered” the economy, and the US believes that a direct hit on the political leadership will be the final blow to the regime. The Iranian government is bracing for an attack that would involve Israeli aircraft and American destroyers working in unison to provide “decisive options” for the removal of the clerical elite.
State media in Tehran has attempted to portray the 12-day war as a victory, but the reality is that half of Iran’s surface-to-surface missile launchers were destroyed. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that will exploit these weakened defenses, utilizing the “massive fleet” to conduct precision bombings of government buildings and IRGC bases. The regime’s inability to prevent the June war suggests they are equally vulnerable today.
President Donald Trump has reportedly sought a “detailed battle plan” that ensures the protection of Israel from any Iranian counter-attacks. The deployment of additional fighter jets and refueling aircraft to Jordan is a clear sign that this plan is now in motion. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that will be far more destructive than the June campaign, as the US seeks to bring the “street protests” to a successful conclusion once and for all.
The clerical leadership continues to warn of “mass retaliation,” but their words carry less weight after the “shattered” results of the previous conflict. As the USS Abraham Lincoln transits “dark mode” through the Indian Ocean, the Iranian government is bracing for a strike that will likely be the final act in a long-running confrontation. The 12-day war was just the beginning; the coming weeks could see the total re-ordering of the Iranian state.