As NATO leaders prepare to endorse an ambitious five percent of GDP defense spending target, a key debate centers on the deadline: will it be an “open-ended pledge” or a firm commitment? This question, alongside Spain’s secured exclusion and President Donald Trump’s insistence that the US should be exempt, reveals ongoing internal disagreements regarding the enforceability of the new defense goals.
The proposed five percent target is bifurcated: 3.5 percent for pure defense spending, a substantial increase from the current two percent minimum, and an additional 1.5 percent for critical infrastructure improvements, cyber defense, and societal preparedness. The US is reportedly insisting that the pledge “cannot be an open-ended,” pushing for a firm timeline shorter than a decade.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez confirmed Spain’s exemption, indicating that the final NATO communique would no longer mandate the target for “all allies.” This move could set a precedent for other financially constrained members, like Italy and Canada, to seek similar concessions. Trump’s persistent calls for allies to increase their contributions, coupled with his labeling of Canada as a “low payer,” further underscore the internal pressures surrounding equitable burden-sharing.
The driving force behind this intensified focus on defense spending is the shared concern among European leaders about Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine and its broader implications for regional security. NATO experts have indicated that robust defense against a potential Russian attack requires investments of at least three percent of GDP. While a 2032 deadline has been floated, the practicality of this timeline and the possibility of extending it to 2035 remain subjects of active discussion.